2

 

†††††††††† Since 1981 we have been publishing our Summer Draw Factors and they have brought some readers great success. Now we have done some more searches to give you a more complete picture. First hereís what happens to sides playing at home after an away win. The first figure given is the total number of results of that kind and the second is a percentage breakdown.

 

††††††† Won†††††† : 3401 - 49.56%††††††††††††††† Score-Draw ††† : 1085 - 15.81%†††††

††††††† Lost †††††††† : 1995 - 29.07%††††††††††††††† Goalless†† ††††††† : 381 - 5.55%

 

So the total percentage of games they drew was 21.36, and less than half followed up an away win with a home win.

 

Now hereís the results of games played by teams away from home immedi≠ately after a home defeat

 

††††††† Won†††††† : 2052 - 29.64%††††††††††††††† Score-Draw ††† : 1047 - 15.12%

††††††† Lost †††††††† : 3496 - 50.50%††††††††††††††† Goalless†† ††††††† : 328 - 4.74%

 

Here the total percentage of draws was 19.86 and just under half these sides avoided defeat in their next away game after a home loss. Letís now look at these figures State by State.

 

 

VICTORIA

 

AWAY Win then playing at home††† HOME Loss then playing away††††

 

Won††††††† : 1560 - 48.81%†††††† Won††† ††† ††††: 954 - 29.66%

Lost†††††† : 885 - 27.69%††††††† Lost†††††† ††† : 1577 - 49.04%††††††††

Score-Draw : 525 - 16.43%††††††† Score-Draw†††† : 506 - 15.73%†††††††††

Goalless†† : 226 - 7.07%†††††††† Goalless†† ††† : 179 - 5.57%††††††††††

Any Draw†† : 751 - 23.50%††††††† Any Draw†† ††† : 685 - 21.30%†††††††††

 

 

WEST AUSTRALIA

 

AWAY Win then playing at home††† HOME Loss then playing away

 

Won††††††† : 621 - 50.49%††††††† Won††††††† ††† : 386 - 31.15%††††††

Lost†††††† : 387 - 31.46%††††††† Lost†††††† ††† : 620 - 50.04%††††††

Score-Draw : 178 - 14.47%††††††† Score-Draw†††† : 187 - 15.09%††††††

Goalless†† : 44 - 3.58%††††††††† Goalless†† ††† : 46 - 3.71%††††††††

Any Draw†† : 222 - 18.05%††††††† Any Draw†† ††† : 233 - 18.81%††††††

 

 

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

 

AWAY Win then playing at home††† HOME Loss then playing away††††

 

Won††††††† : 279 - 45.66%††††††† Won††††††† ††† : 188 - 30.62%†††††††††

Lost†††††† : 191 - 31.26%††††††† Lost†††††† ††† : 293 - 47.72%†††††††††

Score-Draw : 106 - 17.35%††††††† Score-Draw†††† : 96 - 15.64%††††††††††

Goalless†† : 35 - 5.73%††††††††† Goalless†† ††† : 37 - 6.03%†††††††††††

Any Draw†† : 141 - 23.08%††††††† Any Draw†† ††† : 133 - 21.66%†††††††††

 

 

QUEENSLAND

 

AWAY Win then playing at home††† HOME Loss then playing away†††

 

Won††††††† : 392 - 51.04%††††††† Won††††††† ††† : 214 - 28.53%††††††††

Lost†††††† : 220 - 28.65%††††††† Lost†††††† ††† : 409 - 54.53%††††††††

Score-Draw : 124 - 16.15%††††††† Score-Draw†††† : 104 - 13.87%†† ††††††

Goalless†  : 32 - 4.17%††††††    Goalless†† ††† : 23 - 3.07%††††††††††

Any Draw†† : 156 - 20.31%††††††† Any Draw†† ††† : 127 - 16.93%††††††††

 

 

TASMANIA

 

AWAY Win then playing at home††† HOME Loss then playing away†††

 

Won††††††† : 304 - 54.77%††††††† Won††††††† ††† : 170 - 28.33%††††††††

Lost†††††† : 179 - 32.25%††††††† Lost†††††† ††† : 348 - 58.00%††††††††

Score-Draw : 56 - 10.09%†††††††† Score-Draw†††† : 71 - 11.83%†††††††††

Goalless†† : 16 - 2.88%††††††††† Goalless†† ††† : 11 - 1.83%††††††††††

Any Draw†† : 72 - 12.97%†††††††† Any Draw†† ††† : 82 - 13.67%††††††††

 

††††††† So what is the best way to turn these facts and figures and those in our other Analysis sections into Treble Chance entries or bookie-beating bets? The first step is to snap any lingering connection in your mind between British Soccer and Australian football.

††††††† In part this is to do with the different levels of soccer involved. During the winter, we are betting on a completely professional game. During our summer, the best Oz. teams play on a Sunday so we donít see them. The level of soccer played by the top State sections is the equivalent of the Doctor Martens Midland League over here - in other words, about three levels beneath our own Division Three. So when we reach lower Aussie Divisions, we are not much above recreation ground football where large margins of defeat or victory are common. It is the kind of football where if a team can unearth one or two star players, they will run riot against unfit or unskilled opponents, or if they lose a star player due to injury they become vulnerable. Figaroo in the Racing and Football Outlook is an excellent source of info. about teams on which we bet being suddenly boosted by the arrival of a State League player once the top flight season is over Down Under.

††††††† So although the pools coupons hardly change in appearance between the last week of our season and the first week of summer pools, the nature of the beast on which youíre betting does† As a general Treble Chance strategy, it pays during the summer to have a slight bias in favour of Victorian games, a strong bias in favour of South Australian games, a slight bias against Western Australia and a total bias against Tasmania North or South except when our form ratings show there is a gap of up to ten points between the teams. You then give special consideration to games where the away sideís league position or form rating is slightly higher than that of their host. Finally, look at matches you have not already ticked for consideration where the away side lost at home the previous week or the home side won away. Unlike in the UK, around half of the first lot will not lose again, despite playing away,† while half the second lot wonít win again despite home advantage. A draw is more likely in these games where the league positions or form ratings of the teams are close, but itís surprising how often these two factors pick out a shock result or two.

††††††† Now we would never recommend any Treble Chance entry that did not use at least 16 matches and much prefer systems that use up to 28 games or more. However, if we assume you are going to use 16 matches covered, say by Daily Mail Plan D, the general strategy we have just outlined suggests you should take six or seven games from Victoria plus three or four from Western Australia, four from South Australia plus one or two from Queensland or Tasmania. Such proportions are not a hard and fast rule but a rough guide. They mean your entry will be designed to exploit the typical distribution of score-draws during the summer. Within each state you then apply the other criteria we have defined or highlighted.

††††††† You might be thinking fewer draws means that the Pools will be harder to win during the summer, but that ainít necessarily so. If there are seven or eight draws, the going gets tough, but the more the draw total drops below that, the easier it gets.††

††††††† If your favourite plan covers 16-20 games, we suggest you use the tables in other parts of our Analysis section to eliminate those where the relative league positions or form ratings point to a less that 18% chance of a draw. To complete your entry, you should then use games where the chance of a draw is 22% or more, again using our tables as a guide. The more games you are using, the further below that 22% draw chance figure you can go.