†††††††††† First a reminder of the
limitations of stats. All that we can do with soccer data is summarise very
precisely what has happened in the past and use that as a basis for guessing,
rather vaguely, what might happen in the future. The results of football games
are determined as much by the near-misses (of which we have no record) as
by the actual goals.† The league table
may show that a team has a good defence, but the cold stats wonít stop it
conceding a goal against the run of play because the referee sneezed and didnít
see a foul or because the wind suddenly dropped so a shot that was going to
hit the post suddenly goes in off it. So however improbable a result, it always
remains possible. But however many variables there are, thereís no reason
to be downcast because stats about the past are helpful, especially if you
get into the habit of always thinking in terms of groups of matches rather
than individual games.
have put over 23,000 Australian results from ten seasons through the micro-mincer
and we can now highlight revealing dif≠ferences between the pattern of results
in the different States.
start with a look at the tables summarising the results of games according to
the relative league positions of the teams at the time each game was played.
†††††††††† This shows how the highest
percentage of both draws and score-draws (23.52%) has occurred Down Unders when the away side
is 1-4 places higher in the league table than their hosts. Nothing startling
about that, but letís now break that summary down State by State to see what
happens. First, the tables for Victoria and Western Australia.
VICTORIA - TOTAL GAMES 10,696
WESTERN AUSTRALIA - TOTAL GAMES 4,024
†††††††††† Note how in five of the
eight bands of the Victoria table, the draw percentage is over 21.6% whereas
in only one of the Western Australian bands is that the case. In every band
except one, Victoria gives slightly more score-draws, but in general it gives
more than twice as many 0-0s - often an important component of top dividend-winning
lines during the summer. Note too how in Western Australia, games where the
away side is higher up the table are almost as likely to produce away wins
as games where the home side is higher will produce homes. This is a key factor
when devising bets on Aussie Soccer with the bookie during the summer. Now
here are the same tables for South Australia, Queensland and Tasmania.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA - TOTAL GAMES 2021
QUEENSLAND - TOTAL GAMES 2484
TASMANIA NORTH & SOUTH - TOTAL GAMES 2063
†††††††††† The figure to pick out
first here is the 27.22% of games in South Australia where the away team is 1-4
higher ending up as draws. In other words, the odds against the draw in such
games are truly 9/4. You will often find better than that on the Ind. Odds
coupons during the summer. Note too that in South Australia a shock away win is
more likely than a draw when a top home side is five or more places higher than
their visitors. In both South Australia and Queensland, rather oddly, a shock
draw is more likely in games where the home side is 9-12 places higher, than
where the home side is 5-8 places higher. In fact, where a South Australian
Division One team is at home to a side 9 or more places below it a score-draw
is more likely than in any kind of Tasmanian game. Now letís turn to Form Ratings.
you look at our current fixture list for the week or pools guide, you'll find
Form Ratings for each game based on the last five games, taking margins of
wins and losses into account plus the form of opponents at the time the game
was played. We can now show you the relationship between the relative Form
ratings of teams and the results of matches over the ten year period.
†††††††††† This shows straight away
how, in general, games where the away side is in slightly better nick than
the home side produce the most score-draws. Note too how when teams are more
or less level in terms of form, an away win is almost as likely as a home
win Down Under. And if the away sideís form is only 6-10 pts higher it has
a 46% chance of winning - so if the bookmaker offers more than 11/10 against
the away you have got a value bet. And if the away teamís rating is 16-25
higher, any quote better than 4/6 is a value price. However, as with relative
league positions, we can refine this by breaking it down into individual States.
Here are the figures for Victoria and Western Australia.
VICTORIA - TOTAL GAMES 10696
†††††††††† Victoria produces a
slightly higher proportion of draws and if you look at the Any Draws column on
the right of the table you can see straight away that games where the away
sideís form is higher by 11-15 or 6-10†
are good for draws and so are games where the form ratings are the same.
If the away rating is 6 or more higher, thereís a less than 1 in 3 chance of a
home win in Victoria. Equally, if the home side rating is over 30 pts higher
than that of their visitors, the chances of a draw are still very nearly 17%.
The same figures for Western Australia are subtly different.
WESTERN AUSTRALIA - TOTAL GAMES 4024
†††††††††† The key figure in the
above table is the 20.33% of games where the away side is 16-20 pts higher that
are score-draws - a better figure than any segment of the Victoria table could
produce. Matches where the away side is 1-5 pts higher also produce slightly
more score-draws in this State. Note, too, how games where the home side is 26-30
pts higher look particularly good for home bankers in this State. Now on to
SOUTH AUSTRALIA - TOTAL GAMES 2021
†††††††††† There are one or two
oddities about this lot. First note that the best group for score-draws is
where one side is 21-25 points better than the other! South Australia gives us
quite a few 0-0s of course, and these help produce one of the highest draw
percentages anywhere in games where the away side is 6-10 pts better than their
hosts. Games in this State are actually the closest to the patterns generated
by British soccer. Even where the home teams go into a game 21 or more form
points ahead of their visitors, thereís at least a 34% chance they wonít win -
in the UK, that figure is closer to 40%. So even here, Aussie soccer is a tad
easier to predict. Finally, we have the tables for Queensland and Tasmania.
QUEENSLAND - TOTAL GAMES 2484
TASMANIA NORTH & SOUTH
†††††††††† To pick up where we left
off in our discussion of the South Australia games, note how in both Tasmania
and Queensland home sides with a substantial form superiority are more likely
to win. The failure rate in these States is less than 1 in 4 for such sides.
The stand-out figure in Queensland is the 26.06% of games that are drawn when
the away side is 16-20 points in better form than their guests.† but note the two 20%+ figures in the ďAny DrawsĒ
column of the Tasmanian set. As we have already said, Tasmanian games are
almost never draws, but if anything can flush out the occasional Tasmanian
X itís the Soccerlotto.com form ratings.
next six tables simply cross-refer the tables we have already presented, although
to do this we have lumped the States together so that the samples taken are
as large as possible. As you can see, there are two cases where the percentage
of games that were drawn suddenly rockets: to 30.77% in one case and 43.75%
in another, but Iím afraid this is because in both cases the sample is very
small so we cannot vouch for the usefulness of the figures.
GAMES WHERE HOME SIDE IS 9-12 PLACES HIGHER THAN AWAY SIDE IN ALL DIVISIONS - TOTAL GAMES 1255
GAMES WHERE HOME SIDE IS 5-8
PLACES HIGHER THAN AWAY SIDE IN ALL DIVISIONS - TOTAL GAMES 3540
GAMES WHERE HOME SIDE IS 1-4
PLACES HIGHER THAN AWAY SIDE IN ALL DIVISIONS - TOTAL GAMES 6575
GAMES WHERE AWAY SIDE IS 1-4
PLACES HIGHER THAN HOME SIDE IN ALL DIVISIONS - TOTAL GAMES 6616
GAMES WHERE AWAY SIDE IS 5-8 PLACES HIGHER THAN HOME SIDE IN ALL DIVISIONS - TOTAL GAMES 3679
GAMES WHERE AWAY SIDE IS
9-12 PLACES HIGHER THAN HOME SIDE IN ALL DIVISIONS - TOTAL GAMES 1288