Scandinavian Analysis

This opening page simply shows you the relationship between the site's five-match-form figures and actual results in the top leagues of Norway, Sweden and Finland from 2000 to October 2006.

You'll find five-match-form figures for each game in our Fixtures/Form listings just before the column showing the relative league positions of the two teams. As our KEYS to various pages explain, these figures take degrees of defeat or victory plus the current form of opponents into account. Anything between 0 and 100 is possible, but teams are nearly always somewhere between 25 and 75. The figures simply give a snapshot of current form.

The percentage figures in the three tables are not related to the home/draw/away percentage figures on the right of our Fixtures/Form guide. On the whole they show that the further ahead any team is on our scale, the more likely it is to win, although there is an interesting dip in the away team’s chances if it is 23-27 points up on our form scale. This may be because the sample we are currently drawing on is far smaller than that used for the UK or other European games.

On the whole, this table is close to the UK models though, suggesting that any odds-on away should be regarded with suspicion, ditto any home priced at 4/6 or lower. Note the same surge in draw chance at either end of the table.

 

TABLE ONE – TOP SCANDINAVIAN LEAGUES FROM 2000 TO OCTOBER 2006 -  3,740 GAMES

SOCCERLOTTO FORM

HOME WIN

AWAY WIN

SCORE-DRAW

GOALLESS

ANY DRAW

AWAY SIDE 33+ UP

28.57% (2)

28.57% (2)

42.86% (3)

0% (0)

42.86% (3)

AWAY SIDE 28-32 UP

38.10% (8)

42.86% (9)

9.52% (2)

9.52% (2)

19.05% (4)

AWAY SIDE 23-27 UP

23.08% (15)

47.69% (31)

23.08% (15)

6.15% (4)

29.23% (19)

AWAY SIDE 18-22 UP

32.58% (43)

37.88% (50)

20.45% (27)

9.09% (12)

29.55% (39)

AWAY SIDE 13-17 UP

33.58% (92)

44.53% (122)

15.33% (42)

6.57% (18)

21.90% (60)

AWAY SIDE 8-12 UP

36.50% (165)

35.40% (160)

20.58% (93)

7.52% (34)

28.10% (127)

AWAY SIDE 3-7 UP

36.66% (213)

34.25% (199)

22.20% (129)

6.88% (40)

29.09% (169)

SIDES WITHIN 2 PTS

48.63% (302)

25.44% (158)

18.20% (113)

7.73% (48)

25.93% (161)

HOME SIDE 3-7 UP

49.10% (301)

24.96% (153)

18.27% (112)

7.67% (47)

25.94% (159)

HOME SIDE 8-12 UP

50.22% (227)

26.55% (120)

16.15% (73)

7.08% (32)

23.23% (105)

HOME SIDE 13-17 UP

54.58% (155)

25.00% (71)

12.68% (36)

7.75% (22)

20.42% (58)

HOME SIDE 18-22 UP

60.53% (92)

16.45% (25)

15.13% (23)

7.89% (12)

23.03% (35)

HOME SIDE 23-27 UP

58.18% (32)

21.82% (12)

16.36% (9)

3.64% (2)

20.00% (11)

HOME SIDE 28-32 UP

52.38% (11)

19.05% (4)

9.52% (2)

19.05% (4)

28.57% (6)

HOME SIDE 33+ UP

60.00% (6)

10.00% (1)

30.00% (3)

0% (0)

30.00% (3)