European Analysis

This page shows you the relationship between the site's five-match-form figures and actual results in Spanish, Italian, German and French top League games from various dates.

 You'll find five-match-form figures for each game in our Fixtures/Form listings just before the column showing the relative league positions of the two teams. As our KEYS to various pages explain, these figures take degrees of defeat or victory plus the current form of opponents into account. Anything between 0 and 100 is possible, but teams are nearly always somewhere between 25 and 75. The figures simply give a snapshot of current form.

 The percentage figures in the three tables are not related to the home/draw/away percentage figures on the right of our Fixtures/Form guide. On the whole they show that the further ahead any team is on our scale, the more likely it is to win, with one or two interesting exceptions.

Note how the draw percentage chance with these games is always at least 29% (odds equal 12/5) if the home side is no more than 7 points ahead, and pretty much a 9/4 chance when the away side is 3-17 points up.

Once the home side is 23-27 points ahead, its a 70.6% chance which is heading for 2/5.. And if the home side is ahead to any extent, the away win should be at least 4/1

 

TABLE ONE SPANISH, ITALIAN, FRENCH AND GERMAN LEAGUES FROM VARYING DATES TO OCTOBER 2006 32, 409 GAMES

SOCCERLOTTO FORM

HOME WIN

AWAY WIN

SCORE-DRAW

GOALLESS

ANY DRAW

AWAY SIDE 33+ UP

33.33% (5)

46.67% (7)

6.67% (1)

13.33% (2)

20.00% (3)

AWAY SIDE 28-32 UP

31.08% (23)

39.19% (29)

17.57% (13)

12.16% (9)

29.73% (22)

AWAY SIDE 23-27 UP

32.01% (97)

38.61% (117)

22.44% (68)

6.93% (21)

29.37% (89)

AWAY SIDE 18-22 UP

36.38% (374)

34.24% (352)

18.58% (191)

10.80% (111)

29.38% (302)

AWAY SIDE 13-17 UP

38.75% (839)

30.25% (655)

20.46% (443)

10.53% (228)

30.99% (671)

AWAY SIDE 8-12 UP

41.32% (1649)

28.09% (1121)

20.32% (811)

10.27% (410)

30.59% (1221)

AWAY SIDE 3-7 UP

45.39% (2553)

23.63% (1329)

20.36% (1145)

10.63% (598)

30.99% (1743)

SIDES WITHIN 2 PTS

49.24% (3196)

21.32% (1384)

19.94% (1294)

9.51% (617)

29.44% (1911)

HOME SIDE 3-7 UP

52.41% (2881)

18.54% (1019)

19.81% (1089)

9.24% (508)

29.05% (1597)

HOME SIDE 8-12 UP

57.19% (2160)

16.15% (610)

18.24% (689)

8.42% (318)

26.66% (1007)

HOME SIDE 13-17 UP

61.18% (1272)

13.42% (279)

17.17% (357)

8.23% (171)

25.40% (528)

HOME SIDE 18-22 UP

66.30% (606)

11.16% (102)

16.41% (150)

6.13% (56)

22.54% (206)

HOME SIDE 23-27 UP

70.59% (240)

10.00% (34)

13.53% (46)

5.88% (20)

19.41% (66)

HOME SIDE 28-32 UP

65.06% (54)

10.84% (9)

20.48% (17)

3.61% (3)

24.10% (20)

HOME SIDE 33+ UP

66.67% (18)

14.81% (4)

14.81% (4)

3.70% (1)

18.52% (5)